U.S.-China Tensions Escalate Amid Thucydides Trap Fears

For decades, the United States and China have stared one another down across the Pacific Ocean in a growing economic and geopolitical rivalry. While the U.S. remains the world’s largest economy, China’s rapid rise has placed it in direct competition with American dominance in commerce, technology, military influence, and global diplomacy. Recent years have seen escalating tensions, from a fierce trade war and semiconductor restrictions to military posturing in the South China Sea and the ongoing Taiwan dispute. As both nations take increasingly hardline stances, some fear they may be falling into the “Thucydides Trap”—the dangerous pattern in which a rising power challenges an established one, often leading to war. Is history doomed to repeat itself, or is there still a path toward peaceful coexistence?

A Brief History of U.S.-China Relations

The roots of today’s tensions date back to the Chinese Revolution of 1949 (also known as the Chinese Civil War). As World War II came to a close, the Cold War was already beginning. Occupying Japanese forces pulled out of China as a new battle for the soul of the country heated up between US-backed Chinese Nationalists and Soviet-backed Communists. Ultimately, the Chinese Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong, prevailed and took control of mainland China. The defeated nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island of Taiwan, which has remained an uninterrupted continuation of pre-communist Chinese culture to this day.

Initially, the U.S. refused to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and instead backed Taiwan as the legitimate government of China throughout the early Cold War. The U.S. and China remained adversaries during this period, fighting on opposite sides in the Korean War (1950–1953) and standing at odds during the Vietnam War (1954-1975).

Relations began to cool in the 1970s. U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972 led to a thaw in diplomatic ties, and by 1979, the U.S. formally recognized the PRC while downgrading and blurring its recognition of Taiwan. This paved the way for increased trade and cooperation, culminating in China’s economic boom following its market reforms under Deng Xiaoping. By the 2000s, China had transformed into a global economic powerhouse, becoming the world’s factory and integrating deeply into global supply chains.

In response to growing tensions, the U.S. has been working to strengthen economic ties with India, Vietnam, and other Asian nations as part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on China. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and increased trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries signal a strategic shift in supply chains and geopolitical alliances. This realignment aims to counterbalance China’s influence while ensuring economic stability for the U.S. and its partners.

Tensions resurfaced with the U.S. as China expanded its global influence, challenging American economic and military dominance. Trade disputes, technological competition (especially over industries like AI and semiconductors), and reoccurring military tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea have brought the two powers into direct confrontation once again.

Many scholars and political analysts are questioning whether the two nations are marching toward an armed conflict. Is there any hope for peace and diplomacy? Or, are the U.S. and China falling into the “Thucydides Trap”?

What Is the Thucydides Trap?

The “Thucydides Trap” is a theory rooted in the observations of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. In the wake of the Persian War, Athens was the supreme naval power among the Greek cities, which generated great wealth from its olive oil industry and silver mining. Athens’ imperial ambitions soon brushed up against Sparta, the dominant military power on land. The two cities engaged in a semi-cold war for 27 years before Sparta finally attacked and defeated her Athenian rivals. Thucydides’ analysis suggested that as Athens’ power grew and she gradually became more aggressive, Sparta became increasingly fearful, making war almost inevitable.

As the old saying goes, History doesn’t repeat itself, but it loves to rhyme. Early in the 21st century, Harvard political scientist Graham Allison revived this idea, applying it to more modern international relations.  In a 2015 study, Allison and his team examined 16 historical instances over the last five centuries in which a rising power challenged a nearby established one. 12 of those cases ended in war, suggesting there is a 75% chance of conflict in such scenarios. Allison remains particularly interested in the current case of the competition between the U.S. and China. His 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Lays out his concerns in no uncertain terms.

Now, with China’s economic rise and military expansion, combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s brinkmanship diplomacy, there is good reason to fear that these two nations are heading toward a similar fate. But is war truly unavoidable?

Tensions Are Reaching a Boiling Point

The most visible sign of the current U.S.-China tension is President Trump’s tariff war, in which he imposed sweeping duties on foreign goods. While Canada, Mexico, and Colombia negotiated resolutions with the U.S., China refused to back down and imposed retaliatory tariffs of their own.

In addition to trade disputes, Taiwan is a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. China claims the self-governing island as its own, while the U.S. maintains its policy of strategic ambiguity—supporting Taiwan’s defense without officially recognizing it as a separate nation. Taiwan has also come to play a crucial role in the world’s economy as a leader in the semiconductor industry. Taiwanese economic status further complicates the situation, making it a battleground for economic and military strategy.

With rising tensions, many scholars and political analysts are questioning whether the two nations are marching toward an armed conflict. Is there any hope for peace and diplomacy? Or, are the U.S. and China already falling into the “Thucydides Trap”?

Reasons for Concern

There are many reasons for Americans, Chinese, and the rest of the world to feel uneasy as the two superports stare one another down. Cautionary signs appear in at least three separate categories that have historically led to war.

Military Posturing – China has significantly ramped up its military presence in the South China Sea, building artificial islands with military bases. The U.S., in turn, has increased its naval patrols in the region. Taiwan remains the biggest flashpoint, with China frequently conducting military drills near its waters.

Economic Decoupling—The U.S. has tightened restrictions on Chinese technology firms, including Huawei, and imposed sanctions on semiconductor exports. China, in response, has restricted rare earth mineral exports. This economic separation fuels tensions and reduces interdependence, making conflict more likely. President Trump’s policies in his first term, as well as his current one, are evidence that this is already happening.

Nationalist Rhetoric—Both Donald Trump in the US and Xi Jinping in China are taking hardline stances, fueled partially by their own views and also by pressure from their supporters. Nationalist sentiments in China, fueled by state media, push for reclaiming Taiwan, while U.S. politicians across party lines are advocating for stronger deterrence strategies.

All this being said, it is good to remember that there is still a one in four chance of emerging through more peaceful means.

Reasons to Hope

Despite appearances, there are at least 3 good reasons to hope for a better outcome than war.

Economic Interdependence – Despite tensions, the U.S. and China remain deeply intertwined economically. China is still one of America’s largest trading partners, and a full-scale war would be disastrous for both nations and the global economy. There is also the question of how such a war would be conducted given the geographical distance.

Diplomatic Channels Remain Open—While relations are tense, both governments continue to engage in diplomatic talks. Recent discussions on Taiwan and trade policy suggest that both sides are still seeking peaceful resolutions. However, either side could blink in this intercontinental stare-down.

Lessons from History – While the Thucydides Trap suggests conflict is likely, it is not inevitable. The Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union is an example of two rival superpowers avoiding direct war through strategic diplomacy. After all, the two great world wars are a living memory for at least a few people and many more to whom these memories were relayed.

What Can We Do About It?

Even as individuals, we can play a role in ensuring a peaceful future.

Stay informed – We can start by educating ourselves and then educating others through just a little bit of research. Start with the links provided in this article, and go from there. The global landscape is changing rapidly. Staying up to date on trade policies, military developments, and diplomatic efforts is crucial to understanding the stakes of U.S.-China relations.

Be an informed consumer—This is currently an economic conflict, so everyday people have more power here than they may think. Many products we use daily are tied to U.S.-China trade. Understanding how policies impact one’s economy can help shape public discourse. What one choose to buy on a day-to-day basis can add up if enough people educate themselves. Adam Smith’s theory of the Invisible Hand of the market has historically proven to be a powerful force.

Engage in political activism—Citizens can advocate for diplomatic engagement over escalation by supporting leaders and policies that prioritize negotiation and economic cooperation over conflict. Writing or calling representatives with informed concerns is one way. Peaceful demonstrations are another way to draw attention to the issue.

While tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, history does not dictate an inevitable war. The Thucydides Trap highlights certain, but it is not an unbreakable pattern. Diplomacy, economic interdependence, and informed public engagement can still steer both nations away from conflict. The world has witnessed global rivalries avoid catastrophe before, and with careful leadership, strategic cooperation, and public awareness, we can push for a future where competition does not lead to destruction.